I recently have been reading Deepak Chopra's thought-provoking books on Universal principles and believe everyone--economists, in particular--have much to learn from him about our economic doldrums.
Tom Lauricella, writing in today's Wall Street Journal ("Foundation of New World Order is Uncertainty), comments that "...investors find themselves in a new world where vast swaths of territory are marked 'unknown.'" Lauricella argues that availability of capital "...can no longer be taken for granted...[In the past] If one wave of money pulled out, it seemed that another was always
coming in to fill the void...For now, any predictions are little more than guesses."
But when was it otherwise? If the great economic minds from history were sitting around a table in the White House today, what would they say? I would hope, at least, they would consider their predictions slightly above the level of guesses.
Economists, as many argue, are a strange lot--praised when their
predictions materialize, scorned when wrong. I found this diddy online
from JokeEC to humor you:
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A mathematician, an accountant and
an economist apply for the same job.
The interviewer calls in the mathematician
and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four."
The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer
incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."
Then the interviewer calls in the
accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The
accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average,
four."
Then the interviewer calls in the
economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The
economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to
the interviewer and says "What do you want it to equal?"
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Lauricella in his WSJ article quotes an economic researcher who both posed and answered his own question: "'What
happens when an irresistible force'--the Fed's actions--'hits an
immovable object'--the paralyzed global economy?'...'The correct answer
is there is no answer." I always find it amusing when people (especially economists) pose questions that have no answers.
Lauricella quotes more economic gobbledygook from a chief investment strategist: "'The credit-creation machine is semi-permanently impaired.'" This is similar to your doctor's assessment of a broken leg or why a formerly successful quarterback isn't playing in the NFL next year.
I would hope that most of us learned in 2008 that the old belief ("I win, you lose") doesn't work. Last year, for most of us, was a case of "I lose, you lose," a phrase that Hallmark will probably not consider in forthcoming birthday cards.
An alternative, which swept Obama into offiice, is "I win, you win." Convincing the American public, Wall Street and Congress about this radical philosophy is Obama's main leadership challenge as he takes office.
Deepak Chopra, a well-known author and M.D., provides some enlightening answers and observations about our current plight. He first says that belief is based on what's known and everything in the future is unknown--not something that would keep many economists gainfully employed.
But Chopra goes further. Quoting several physicists, Chopra explains the "discontinuity" theory about the Universe. Simply put, the entire Universe--including human consciousness--is a process consisting of sub-atomic particles or
vibratiions that continuously turn on and off, appearing then disappearing.
When off, discontinuity
occurs. Everything is empty. Physicists claim that in the off state nothing exists--no information or content. When questioned further, however, physicists say that in a state of discontinuity, the Universe offers infinite possibilities, infinite creativity--a condition where anything is possible.
For most of us, the sub-atomic world is not our daily reality. But imagine if we could glimpse it, if only for a few seconds? How would our lives change? If discontinuity provides infinite possibilities and unbounded creativity, leading to a reduction of fear and discord in our lives, miracles would become reality. Worry and strife about our economy, ourselves and others would greatly diminish. Our perceptions of the world would radically change.
Back to Lauricella and the Wall Street Journal article.
He asks a series of close-ended questions (only answerable as "yes" or "no"). Here are a few, followed by my re-phrasing creating open-ended questions:
"Might a cash-starved world mean a prolonged period when interest rates for corporate borrowers stay well above historic levels?" ("What can we do to increase credit for corporate borrowers?")
"Will there be a protracted retrenchment among heavily indebted consumers who carry mortgages bigger than the value of homes?" ("How can we improve the housing market and help consumers reduce debt to pay their mortgage payments?")
"What kind of a premium will investors pay for stocks that reliably churn out scarce cash in the form of dividends?" ("What steps can we take to boost corporate profitability resulting in increased dividends for stockholders?")
As Chopra would say, re-phrase the questions. Re-orient our thinking. Be mindful. Think creatively about the problems we face. There are infinite possibilities in the Universe.
